‘Top business travel risks of 2023’

War, rising costs for air travel, and piracy are risks that might affect your business travelers this year, according to the Global Risk Forecast 2023, a report produced by risk experts Crisis24. Crisis24, a BCD Marketplace partner, provides security advisory, crisis management, cyber security, executive protection and journey management, and travel security services.

Global Risk Forecast 2023 explores the implications of geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine wat and global energy disruption and category risks such as extreme weather events and low-level piracy. With these insights, you can better prepare for and manage risk situations in your managed travel program. For example, when you consider the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war, you might initially think about travel restrictions. Yet, food scarcity, energy disruptions and higher price for goods and services might also present challenges to your bottom line and your business travelers’ journeys. Piracy, for example, may not affect your travelers’ safety, but could result in increased shipping costs for products your company uses.

Category risks

Return to air travel

The rise in air travel operating costs will linger in 2023, as fuel and labor costs increase and are largely passed on to customers through higher fares. Western airlines will also have to contend with the continued closure of Russian airspace. Airlines are likely to cut routes (particularly between Europe and Asia), increase fares and expand partnerships (as a cost-effective way to extend their reach of their networks).

New technologies will improve the passenger experience but could expose safety and security vulnerabilities.

Extreme weather effects

The La Nina weather event has occurred for three consecutive years. It has contributed to an upward trend in extreme weather events, promising more frequent and intense periods of drought, extreme heat and torrential rainfall. The latest La Nina event is expected to end this year, but its secondary impacts, including disruption to transport and utilities, food shortages and wildfire threats, will persist through 2023.

Rising low-level piracy

Low-level piracy, which typically entails robbery from vessels close to shore, is likely to increase and emerge in areas where it has not previously been reported. The spike will result in increased shipping costs.

Fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-related disruptions will continue this year. Global supply chain issues will likely persist into 2024 due, in part, to these disruptors.

Other health-related issues

Vaccine-preventable disease immunization programs were largely halted during the pandemic, particularly in countries with underfunded healthcare programs. As a result, countries around the world are now seeing a rise in infections among these diseases. Aside from the health implications, this also has economic impact, as employee absences increase. Many countries are not unaccustomed to outbreaks of these conditions (as immunization had prevented them in the past). Larger countries and those with government-funded healthcare systems should cope better.

Asia Pacific supply chains

International agreements are restructuring the way supply chains work in Asia Pacific. The RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) agreement signed in November 2020 ties some of Asia’s largest economies more closely to China. The IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework), launched by the U.S. in May 2022, has emerged as a counterweight to Chinese economic leadership in Asia. This also represents a clear escalation of economic competition between the U.S. and China, which will drive a shift in supply chains in the medium term.

(source: BCD)